Long time genius coach Matt LaFleur welcomes QB dependent Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots to town for an afternoon thriller. Green Bay is fresh off a victory over the Ironman who built the Patriots dynasty.
Brady has defied time for far too long and did his best to will his team into a last minute hope only to be out done by time itself. Now the heir apparent, Mac Jones, will miss Sunday’s game leaving journeyman QB Brian Hoyer as the martyr.
New England’s recipe for success has always been strong defense and a consistent run game with a variety of runners. As nobody will fear Brian Hoyer, the running game will see a Packers defense that limited Tampa Bay to 34 yards rushing. The Patriots are 1-2 after getting dissected by the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson.
Green Bay suffered some offensive woes in the 2nd half last week and will need to consistently stay with the running game throughout. New England shouldn’t be a problem but when it comes to Green Bay Packers football what comes east will not go easy.
Pass Attempts – 30.5 (-126) – Lower
Pass Completions – 21.5 (-126) -Lower
Passing Yards – 228.5 yards (-114) – Higher
Passing TDS – 1.5 (-143) – Higher
QB1 can be efficient and take chunks with RBs and TEs while using Doubs in the short passing.
Carries – 11.5 (-132) – Higher
Rushing Yards – 56.5 (-115) – Higher
Receptions – 3.5 (+112) – Higher
Receiving Yards – 23.5 yards (-114) – Higher
Carries – 13.5 (+100) – Lower
Rushing Yards – 54.5 yards (-117) – Lower
Receptions – 2.5 (+125) – Higher
Receiving Yards – 13.5 (-121) – Higher
Patriots have bottled up their last 3 opponents to anemic averages. Green Bay has to stick to the run and not avoid it whenever the mood grows temper mental. RBs have accumulated at least 3 catches against New England defense all year. Expect the small volume to hit for for both backs as the Patriots secondary holds up well.
Receptions – 3.5 (+124) – Lower
Receiving Yards – 37.5 yards (-113) – Lower
Receptions – 3.5 (-159) – Higher
Receiving Yards – 45.5 (-114) – Higher
Patriots are top 5 in points allowed to WR after facing a gauntlet of the Miami duo Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle followed by Diontae Johnson and lastly Rashod Bateman. High expectations for the rookie as he made the most of short passes and adding value with YAC. Lazard was below his prop totals until the last drive and he chunked out a 25 yard gain.
Receptions – 2.5 (-129) -Higher
Receiving Yards – 24.5 (-113) – Higher
Patriots have surrendered 4 TDs over the last two weeks to TEs. It’s a return to Touchdown Town for Bobby.
Green Bay benefits from having the hampered Patriots in town. Mac Jones may not have saved them from a drubbing but he at least would’ve kept it interesting. It would be surprising if Green Bay allowed this to be closer than necessary so that’s exactly the recipe for Sunday. The typical play down to their level Packers, struggle early and then whoop ass late once the games in hand. After the offensive struggles in Tampa, be hard to fathom Green Bay snaps everything back into place so easily.
Green Bay gets Bakhtiari at full strength and a mismatched opponent that is riddled with concerns. The Packers may have to limit Jaire and rest him up in a meaningless weak 4 tilt. The Patriots are a much better team than the spread indicates as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson can shell out chunk yardage to keep them alive.
Ultimately, Green Bay’s experience helps convert key downs and wins with some room to spare.
Green Bay pulls it out 27-13