Last week never happened. Green Bay restarts a 16 game season with a division rival in the primetime Monday Night. The home opener offers a new spotlight to calm down the mass hysteria after Green Bay laid a dud performance in Week 1. Everyone was to blame for an apparent lack of energy from the team, not counting all the loyal Cheeseheads with boots on the ground in Jacksonville.
After the disappointing performance on both sides of the ball, expect Green Bay to come back to basics, establishing the run game after rushing only 15 times in the loss. Lead back Aaron Jones only had five of those carries and will be asked to pick up the workload against a Lions defense that surrendered 41 points to the San Francisco 49ers. Detroit has played Green Bay tough over the last few seasons although their gunslinger Matt Stafford moved west to Los Angeles, in exchange for Jared Goff. Never underestimate a division rival even if it is the Lions.
Aaron had one of his ugliest performances in a Packer uniform against the Saints. As for the reasons, who knows why the team and QB1 all came out flat. Whether it’s the offseason questions or they simply weren’t ready for what New Orleans was showing on the field, QB1 will be expected to be crisp with a full attendance at Lambeau, ready to roar or do the wave on offense. Luckily for Rodgers, the redemption week comes against Detroit’s banged up defense who lost their top corner Jeff Okudah to a season ending Achilles injury. Green Bay is facing a defense that allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to throw for over 300 yards in Week 1. Don’t see many scenarios where Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw for 300+ yards in this matchup.
Aaron throws for 330 and 4 TDs while the running game still works out some kinks
Aaron Rodgers props: 284.5 Yards Passing 2.5 TDs
For some odd reason, Jones had limited effectiveness against the stingy Saints front. Detroit’s inability to cover on the backend should open some lanes and spark the stagnant Packer rushing attack. Expect Coach LaFleur to scheme additional opportunities for Aaron Jones to lead the way with gashing opportunities for AJ Dillon and Kylin Hill. Detroit recently gave Elijah Mitchell a shining debut for a surprise rookie running back who scampered for 104 yards and a score.
Aaron Jones has less than 15 carries but makes use of his touches running for 80 yards and a TD
AJ Dillon provides value in key downs pulling off 30 yards rushing.
Aaron Jones props: 15.5 carries 70.5 yards 2.5 catches 19.5 yards
AJ Dillon props: 8.5 carries 35.5 yards
Packers Starting WRs
As previously stated, the Detroit secondary is playing with spare parts and staring down a motivated Aaron Rodgers. All three of the Packers’ featured receivers have a chance to blow their projected yardage out. Davante can feast on the league’s best cover corners; Aaron finds a way to get his star pass catcher the ball early and often.
Davante pulls off 6 catches for 115 yards and 2 TD
MVS and Lazard regularly benefit from Adams star power absorbing the defensive focus. Rodgers attempted to get MVS the ball a team high 8 times in Week 1. Those 8 targets only produced 3 receptions for 17 yards. Lazard was looked at 4 times where he hauled in 2 receptions for 16 yards. With both their reception totals at 2.5 receptions and last week being worst case scenario, I am expecting them to exceed their projections. All MVS needs is one clean shot and he maxes out his yard total as well. Allen Lazard will be on the field due to his size and will to run block. Availability is the best ability and assume he carves out a role on Monday night.
MVS catches 3 passes for 75 yards and 1 TD
Lazard pulls in 4 receptions for 55 yards
Davante props: 7.5 catches 87.5 yards
MVS props: 2.5 catches 41.5 yards
Lazard props: 2.5 catches 32.5 yards
Detroit will not know who to cover after an evening onslaught from the cerebral assassin Aaron Rodgers. Tonyan’s performance last week didn’t provide optimism for hope he was a true number two option for the Green Bay passing offense. Bobby converted 2 catches on 4 targets for a total of 8 yards. Only way that stat line is acceptable is if those two catches are both TDs, as his namesake. In the 2020 matchups against Detroit, Tonyan never exceeded 36 yards although he scored in both meetups.
Bobby hauls in 4 catches for 55 yards and his one valuable TD.
Tonyan props: 3.5 catches 31.5 yards
Cobb & Amari Rodgers
Not sure where their value is with MVS, Lazard receiving more targets and noticeable usage. As of now, there’s no room to find additional targets with multiple TE and RB sets. I would hesitate to use either of them or expect too much until they find how to use Amari Rodgers as a true slot.
Don’t expect the defense to hold this Detroit offense down simply because they have a new coach in Motor City Dan Campbell. Green Bay embarrassed themselves defensively last week with crucial mistakes and inability to create pressure. That problem is exacerbated by the disappointing news of Z’darius Smith’s absence due to a lingering back issue. Detroit will find ways to move the ball against the Packers front seven.
In a home opener with fans back at Lambeau for the first time in what feels like forever, there is no doubt the Packers will come out firing on offense. Defense will have to hold their own and not let the Lion’s hang around too long.
Green Bay gets out to an early lead and finishes strong with a 35-20 win.