Green Bay enters Week 13 with the smallest of margins for hope and yet the desire to pummel to the Chicago Bears never wavers. Battered, bruised, and licking their wounds from the high scoring affair in Philadelphia. We had moments of despair, followed by comeback dreams, and ultimately left with concern as Rodgers left the game. Jordan Love came in and looked to have progressed mightily from the last time we have seen him. He had good zip on the ball with a decisive drop back. As a guy who would never overreact and judge him too early, it’s great to see the development in the former first round pick.
Depending on the result Sunday against Chicago, we may see more of Jordan Love the rest of the season so that QB1 can rest his accumulation of injuries. The only other thing more beat up than our starting QB is our run defense that was gashed time and time again last week which has developed into a tradition under Joe Barry. Without many optimistic snaps left for the season, it might be best to see what the youth has them although let us save that for next week as the most important factor is beating Chicago Bears twice a year.
Rodgers has proven to let rivalries and important games give him his best football as the only win in his last 8 games is against his old coach Mike McCarthy. Rodgers is 23-5 in the regular season against Chicago. Justin Fields returning to the starting lineup makes this game a tougher endeavor as the Packers defense let Jalen Hurts run all over them. Fields relies on his ground work to make up for the lack of passing attack especially with flashy wide receiver Darnell Mooney out on IR. Green Bay’s sketchy defense puts this game into a toss up yet QB1 and breakout WR Christian Watson have an opportunity for splash plays. LaFleur and the team have to stick to the run with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as a power duo. Stick to the basics and hope the defense isn’t horrendous. Tremendous times we are in.
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Attempts o31.5 (-114) Lower
Passing Completions o19.5(-109) Higher
Passing Yards o231.5 (-115) Higher
Passing TDs o1.5 (-108) Higher
Chicago is 1st in the league in completions and attempts allowed which is shocking but mostly because they get gashed in the running game there is no need to pass. Rodgers won’t need to be a world beater to have a quality game Sunday. Efficient and methodical as he prefers should be enough to get the job done
Aaron Jones
Rushing Yards o56.5 (-122) Higher
Receptions o3.5 (+110) Higher
Receiving Yards o22.5 (-114) Higher
AJ Dillon
Rushing Yards o36.5 (-123) Lower
Receptions o1.5 (-125) Higher
Receiving Yards o10.5 (-110) Higher
Chicago let unnamed duo Zonovan Knight and Ty Johnson scamper for 130+ yards last week after the starter Michael Carter left the game early. Chicago is in full rebuild and incapable of controlling the line of scrimmage. Their defense allows 113 yards per game on the ground ranking 28th in the league. They average at least 1 rushing TD per game to RBs. Chicago limits pass catching backs so the best way to dice them up is well designed running plays and the consistency of Jones & Dillon can enforce their will.
Allen Lazard
Receptions – o3.5 (-139) Higher
Receiving Yards – o46.5 (-120) Higher
Christian Watson
Receptions – o2.5 (-125) Higher
Receiving Yards – o47.5 (-116) Higher
Bobby Tonyan
Receptions o2.5 (-164) Higher
Receiving Yards o26 (-109) Higher
Reception props are limited going into the weekend so the estimates are rough. Romeo Doubs is questionable to play while he still could garner some open looks if available. Watson seems to find his way into the offense with his confidence growing each week. Chicago is top 5 in receptions allowed to WRs so the playmakers will need to make the most of their receptions. The Bear defense ranks middle of the league in yards allowed and TDs allowed per game to wideouts so the Packers can take advantage of chunk plays with the versatility of our receiving core.
Outlook
Green Bay has handled Chicago over the last few years and an over confidence shouldn’t be on anyone’s menu as a 4-8 team. The Packers last hopes are dwindling and as the dust settles we’ll find out shortly how quickly our playoff aspirations are alive. With slim to no chance of making the postseason, Green Bay is playing for development and losing to the rising star of Justin Fields is not an acceptable learning mishap. Winning all division games should be the primary focus and with Rodgers reliability against Chicago and the electric running back combo, Green Bay can take care of business on the road.
Green Bay wins a shaky contest 28-24
As always it is #GoPackGO
