A disappointing loss against the Vikings leaves a sour taste going into Week 12’s matchup with another familiar foe, the Los Angeles Rams. Green Bay started slow in the loss and can’t afford to repeat against a much more talented team. The Rams added key pieces since last January’s playoff meeting. They were aggressive in adding Matt Stafford and Odell Beckham Jr. Don’t overlook Stafford’s experience in Green Bay. Matt Stafford has had moderate success going 7-13 against Green Bay in his career despite being a Detroit Lion. Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald still star a defense that got punched in the mug in the 32-18 loss in a half filled Lambeau. The excessive familiarity storylines can crossover with coaching staffs, players, the OBJ sweepstakes all while ignoring the pursuit of the #1 seed in the NFC. Green Bay’s loss last week pulls them out of the lead behind Arizona. Each team has 3 losses entering the game Sunday with LA 7-3 fresh off their bye and a loss just before that to San Francisco. Green Bay however is 8-3 awaiting their bye next week to hopefully get some healthy pieces back in the fold.
QB1 looked wobbly in the first half just missing big plays and allowed themselves to play from behind. This week, Rodgers has the advantage of home-field, and he is going against a defense he burned for 296 yards and 2 TDs in the playoff game. As of now, the Rams rank 6th in points allowed to QBs. Aaron Rodgers was looking for home run balls in the Minnesota game and he will need to take the underneath throws at a higher rate to chip away like the 49ers did with Deebo Samuel. Randall Cobb may be the beneficiary from Jalen Ramsey’s hyper focus on the Davante Adams heavyweight bout.
Aaron Rodgers props 262.5 yards passing 2.5 TDs 7.5 rushing yards
Aaron Rodgers throws for 265 yards 2 TDs 15 yards rushing
Remarkably Aaron Jones is almost back from injury ahead of schedule which would cut into Dillon’s touches. With the bye just around the corner, LaFleur will be cautious with his signature RB therefore giving AJ Dillon one more week as the feature back. He was serviceable against Minnesota as the run game was hard to commit to when playing from behind. Los Angeles ranks 15th in the league in points allowed to RBs. AJ Dillon showed off his versatility in the passing game pulling down tough catches and consistent trust from Rodgers. The Rams have allowed 5 or more catches to RBs in 7 of their 10 games. Figure AJ to receive passing play to slow down the pass rush from freak of nature Aaron Donald. Dillon should see 15+ carries unless Green Bay suffers another slow start. If Aaron Jones goes, that shows immense level of confidence in LaFleur, and Jones would assume this stat line while AJ Dillon would still get his drives to produce. The mayor of Door County will always have a home in this offense.
AJ Dillon props: rushing props unknown due to Jones game-time decision, 2.5 catches for 20.5 receiving yards (Even if Jones goes, AJ Dillon will beat those catch results)
AJ Dillon rushes 12 times for 75 yards and 1 TD 5 catches for 35 yards
Davante lives for the opportunity to show the world his elite skillset. Jalen Ramsey and Davante have a respect for each other’s talent although expect to see each of the stars barking throughout. Adams was able to best Jalen in the Divisional Round with the utilization of motion and fancy footwork leaving Ramsey in a tantrum. Past performance isn’t indicative of future success yet in Davante’s world he continues to find ways to excel. In his first performance against LA, he went 5 catches for 133 yards. His 2nd game was the playoff matchup where he hauled in 9 catches for 66 yards and a TD. Rosters change and schemes adjust but expect Davante to find continued success regardless of who covers him. The Rams rank 9th in points allowed to WRs and have allowed only three 100 yard receivers all year.
Davante props: 7.5 catches for 88.5 yards
Davante snags 8 catches for 110 yards 1 TD
Jaire Alexander is close to coming back and the defense should piece itself together in time for a Super Bowl run. Unfortunately, the weakened secondary will also be without scapegoat Kevin King for the matchup. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, OBJ and Tyler Higbee is a formidable offense to hold down while they still have the dynamic RB duo of Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel. If Green Bay is going to win Sunday, they will need to find a way to get pass rush with Rashan Gary also questionable to play.
Both teams are coming off losses and facing a late season push for supremacy. Green Bay’s home field advantage is a slight edge although Stafford won’t be shaken easily. Stafford does tend to overcommit to one single target based on his time with Calvin Johnson and now the shifty Cooper Kupp. OBJ is likely to put on a show just so all the talking heads can play coulda shoulda woulda. Green Bay survives the home challenge and goes into the bye recovering for the long haul.
Green Bay wins ugly 24-21