Welcome back to the weekly expectations for the Packers offense. Green Bay is coming off an explosive performance from Aaron Jones who ran away with 4 touchdowns and the MVP of the Packers win. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game were serviceable and took what the Cowboys defense gave them. The Packers failed to convert big plays in the passing game with Rodgers and Marquez Valdes-Scantling unable to connect on a few touchdown opportunities. Aaron Jones was the hero in the passing game and LaFleur will need to tap back into that game plan against an aggressive Lions defense. The Detroit defense has flashes of dominance forcing turnovers but they have conceded 23.8 points per game resulting in a 2-1-1 record.
Week 1, the Lions defense allowed the newly formed Arizona offense to come back from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to force the tie. In Week 2, the Lions made people believers by holding the highly rated Chargers offense to 10 points after forcing two turnovers in a 13-10 win. We now know the Chargers offense to be underachieving and consistently playing from behind. Philadelphia was a quality 27-24 win for Detroit as they traded scoring blows with the jarring shot being two lost fumbles. Before their Week 5 bye, Detroit lost their last game with a 30-34 shootout loss against Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Kansas City offense. Detroit was able to force and recover three fumbles against the athletic KC offense.
The Packers will have to repeat the recipe in Dallas by sticking to the running game and winning the turnover battle if they want to reverse the recent woes against Detroit. Rodgers was absent in most of those disappointing losses to Detroit. He’s healthy now and going up against a banged-up Lion defensive line missing rotational defensive linemen Da’Shawn Hand and the familiar face of Mike Daniels.
At this point, it’s self-explanatory to expect Rodgers in the high expectation category. This team moves as he does and his interviews recently have shown him to place an emphasis on wins in the coming stages of his career. For fantasy purposes, you most likely don’t want to trust 9 points from your QB but as a Packer fan, a win is a win. LaFleur has drawn up an impressive run game for the play-action passing game to blossom. Rodgers’ accuracy and the athleticism of MVS are bound to sync up and this has a high potential for it Monday night. Detroit tends to play aggressively with a single high safety leaving them susceptible to the breakout speed of MVS.
The alternative is Detroit plays the overtop coverage and concedes the checkdown to Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams which Detroit has struggled to defend RBs out of the backfield. Rodgers and the offensive line have been able to control the line of scrimmage against 5 tough pass rushes and now face a much tamer Detroit team. Snacks Harrison and Trey Flowers have takeover potential but the way the Packers maulers have been playing, I feel comfortable expecting the Packers control the field. Rodgers will find plenty of friendly coverage looks and if he has the window to throw, he can make this young wide receiver group come to life. Rodgers gifted talent of being able to maneuver the pass rush and extend plays with his feet. Detroit has surrendered the 7th highest amount of yards rushing to QBs and they have played 2 fewer games than a majority of the NFL.
270 yards passing 2 TDs 35 yards rushing
Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams
Now that Jamaal is healthy, the game plan will revert back to a more split workload despite Aaron Jones trouncing the Cowboys. LaFleur likes to run the two back sets pretty similar to what Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco. The two back system has been successful against the Detroit defense as they have given up 100 or more yards rushing in every game this season and the 4th highest fantasy points per game to running backs. Detroit’s defense has given up the 8th most receiving yards to running backs and still only four games played. The Detroit defense has surrendered a minimum of at least 50 yards receiving to RBs all four games so far.
With the Packers playing multiple back sets, expect the Packers to pick the mismatch and take advantage of the aggressive Detroit defense. Matt Patricia is expected to follow the Bill Belichick route of taking away the best weapon on offense. For the Packers, Aaron Jones carried the team last week and is the essential breakout player without Davante Adams (or Bobby Touchdowns Tonyan) on the field. This is the NFL, don’t you think the Cowboys wanted to stop Aaron Jones?
Give credit to good scheme design as well as Aaron Jones being able to patiently shift with his blocks and find open running lanes. Detroit has two agile linebackers in Devon Kennard and Jarrad Davis who will be able to cover or blitz at a moment’s notice although don’t worry we heard that about Dallas too. Defenses will always have to stay honest against Aaron Rodgers, gifting advantageous defensive fronts for the running game to succeed. I expect Aaron Jones to feature but also a healthy amount of Jamaal Williams.
Predicting split load backfield statistics is impossible so we can count on the duo to contribute a minimum of 100 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving. With the hot hand factor favoring Jones, hes looking at 14 carries for 80 yards and a TD with 5 catches for 45 yards and another TD. Jamaal is looking at 10 carries for 40 yards and 4 catches for 30 yards. These estimates are based off usage when they’ve played together, normal distribution of passes and the mismatches presented by the defense.
Geronimo hasn’t shown the consistency in his hands or his route running to rely on in any fantasy or emotional hopes. He is due to show his potential any game now and this week provides a favorable mismatch. Lions are allowing 24.75 points per game to slot wide receivers and only 17.95 to receivers split out wide. With Geronimo playing primarily from the slot, he has the best breakout potential of the receivers despite MVS being a homerun threat on any play.
Geronimo expects to hit 6 catches for 70 yards and a TD
He is in here despite contributing in a monster way as a blocker and converting all of three of his targets into catches, amounting to 41 yards. I have to eat crow as I have heavily criticized Jimmy for his effort and will to play, he showed up and was a major factor in the Packers being able to move the ball against the Cowboys. The wide receivers haven’t shown to be able to be relied upon just yet and Aaron has found Jimmy in critical moments. Tight ends haven’t been explosive versus Detroit as they’re allowing only 5.5 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs going against marquee names such as Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce. The opportunity lies with Detroit’s opponents have converted 72.7% of their targets to TEs. Jimmy isn’t running past defenders anymore and he has learned to sit in the open space and square up for Rodgers to find in recent weeks.
Jimmy ends up with a modest stat line of 5 catches for 45 yards. Low fantasy expectations but high expectations in how involved in the offense he is.
MVS was underthrown on an easy touchdown which he was fortunate enough to receive a ticky-tack pass interference call when the ball couldn’t reach his burning speed. He also had a walk-in touchdown on a play design to the deep left until Robert Quinn overran the offenses left side forcing Rodgers to roll outright. MVS established he’s not just a deep threat with a big-time possession grab after working across the field towards the sideline. Darius Slay is expected to play and will most likely cover Marquez, limiting his potential to shine on Monday Night Football. Detroit’s aggressiveness could backfire and Aaron Rodgers will make them pay by hitting the speedster for big chunks. Think that might happen once but other than that MVS struggles to get going.
MVS accumulates 2 catches for 60 yards
Packers came out firing against the Cowboys and lost rhythm when they slowed the gas pedal in the 2nd half. Rodgers and LaFleur will look to secure another division win with a dominating running game and diverse cast of contributors. Detroit’s offense is capable of keeping up and outscoring the Packers so I am not convinced this is a runaway game like the opening line predicted at -6.5. Odds normalized favoring Packers by 4 points to win. Personally, I think a field goal difference is more accurate and in a back and forth affair resulting in a 30-27 victory Lambeau Field.
Thanks for taking the time to read my hopes of another sweet Packers victory,
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